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meanf

Mean Forecast

Description

Returns forecasts and prediction intervals for an iid model applied to y.

Usage

meanf(
  y,
  h = 10,
  level = c(80, 95),
  fan = FALSE,
  lambda = NULL,
  biasadj = FALSE,
  bootstrap = FALSE,
  npaths = 5000,
  x = y
)

Arguments

y

a numeric vector or time series of class ts
h

Number of periods for forecasting
level

Confidence levels for prediction intervals.
fan

If TRUE, level is set to seq(51,99,by=3). This is suitable for fan plots.
lambda

Box-Cox transformation parameter. If lambda="auto", then a transformation is automatically selected using BoxCox.lambda. The transformation is ignored if NULL. Otherwise, data transformed before model is estimated.
biasadj

Use adjusted back-transformed mean for Box-Cox transformations. If transformed data is used to produce forecasts and fitted values, a regular back transformation will result in median forecasts. If biasadj is TRUE, an adjustment will be made to produce mean forecasts and fitted values.
bootstrap

If TRUE, use a bootstrap method to compute prediction intervals. Otherwise, assume a normal distribution.
npaths

Number of bootstrapped sample paths to use if bootstrap==TRUE.
x

Deprecated. Included for backwards compatibility.

Details

The iid model is

Y[t]=mu + Z[t]

where Z[t] is a normal iid error. Forecasts are given by

Y[n+h]=mu

where mu is estimated by the sample mean.

Value

An object of class "forecast".

The function summary is used to obtain and print a summary of the results, while the function plot produces a plot of the forecasts and prediction intervals.

The generic accessor functions fitted.values and residuals extract useful features of the value returned by meanf.

An object of class "forecast" is a list containing at least the following elements:

model

A list containing information about the fitted model
method

The name of the forecasting method as a character string
mean

Point forecasts as a time series
lower

Lower limits for prediction intervals
upper

Upper limits for prediction intervals
level

The confidence values associated with the prediction intervals
x

The original time series (either object itself or the time series used to create the model stored as object).
residuals

Residuals from the fitted model. That is x minus fitted values.
fitted

Fitted values (one-step forecasts)

Author(s)

Rob J Hyndman

See Also

Examples

nile.fcast <- meanf(Nile, h=10)
plot(nile.fcast)
forecast

Forecasting Functions for Time Series and Linear Models

v8.14
GPL-3
Authors
Rob Hyndman [aut, cre, cph] (<https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2140-5352>), George Athanasopoulos [aut], Christoph Bergmeir [aut] (<https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3665-9021>), Gabriel Caceres [aut], Leanne Chhay [aut], Mitchell O'Hara-Wild [aut] (<https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6729-7695>), Fotios Petropoulos [aut] (<https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3039-4955>), Slava Razbash [aut], Earo Wang [aut], Farah Yasmeen [aut] (<https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1479-5401>), R Core Team [ctb, cph], Ross Ihaka [ctb, cph], Daniel Reid [ctb], David Shaub [ctb], Yuan Tang [ctb] (<https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5243-233X>), Zhenyu Zhou [ctb]
Initial release

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