sbrier(obj, pred, btime= range(obj[,1]))

library("survival")
data("DLBCL", package = "ipred")
smod <- Surv(DLBCL$time, DLBCL$cens)

KM <- survfit(smod ~ 1)
# integrated Brier score up to max(DLBCL$time)
sbrier(smod, KM)

# integrated Brier score up to time=50
sbrier(smod, KM, btime=c(0, 50))

# Brier score for time=50
sbrier(smod, KM, btime=50)

# a "real" model: one single survival tree with Intern. Prognostic Index
# and mean gene expression in the first cluster as predictors
mod <- bagging(Surv(time, cens) ~ MGEc.1 + IPI, data=DLBCL, nbagg=1)

# this is a list of survfit objects (==KM-curves), one for each observation
# in DLBCL
pred <- predict(mod, newdata=DLBCL)

# integrated Brier score up to max(time)
sbrier(smod, pred)

# Brier score at time=50
sbrier(smod, pred, btime=50)
# artificial examples and illustrations

cleans <- function(x) { attr(x, "time") <- NULL; names(x) <- NULL; x }

n <- 100
time <- rpois(n, 20)
cens <- rep(1, n)

# checks, Graf et al. page 2536, no censoring at all!
# no information: \pi(t) = 0.5 

a <- sbrier(Surv(time, cens), rep(0.5, n), time[50])
stopifnot(all.equal(cleans(a),0.25))

# some information: \pi(t) = S(t)

n <- 100
time <- 1:100
mod <- survfit(Surv(time, cens) ~ 1)
a <- sbrier(Surv(time, cens), rep(list(mod), n))
mymin <- mod$surv * (1 - mod$surv)
cleans(a)
sum(mymin)/diff(range(time))

# independent of ordering
rand <- sample(1:100)
b <- sbrier(Surv(time, cens)[rand], rep(list(mod), n)[rand])
stopifnot(all.equal(cleans(a), cleans(b)))



# 2 groups at different risk

time <- c(1:10, 21:30)
strata <- c(rep(1, 10), rep(2, 10))
cens <- rep(1, length(time))

# no information about the groups

a <- sbrier(Surv(time, cens), survfit(Surv(time, cens) ~ 1))
b <- sbrier(Surv(time, cens), rep(list(survfit(Surv(time, cens) ~1)), 20))
stopifnot(all.equal(a, b))

# risk groups known

mod <- survfit(Surv(time, cens) ~ strata)
b <- sbrier(Surv(time, cens), c(rep(list(mod[1]), 10), rep(list(mod[2]), 10)))
stopifnot(a > b)

### GBSG2 data
data("GBSG2", package = "TH.data")

thsum <- function(x) {
  ret <- c(median(x), quantile(x, 0.25), quantile(x,0.75))
  names(ret)[1] <- "Median"
  ret
}

t(apply(GBSG2[,c("age", "tsize", "pnodes",
                 "progrec", "estrec")], 2, thsum))

table(GBSG2$menostat)
table(GBSG2$tgrade)
table(GBSG2$horTh)

# pooled Kaplan-Meier

mod <- survfit(Surv(time, cens) ~ 1, data=GBSG2)
# integrated Brier score
sbrier(Surv(GBSG2$time, GBSG2$cens), mod)
# Brier score at 5 years
sbrier(Surv(GBSG2$time, GBSG2$cens), mod, btime=1825)

# Nottingham prognostic index

GBSG2 <- GBSG2[order(GBSG2$time),]

NPI <- 0.2*GBSG2$tsize/10 + 1 + as.integer(GBSG2$tgrade)
NPI[NPI < 3.4] <- 1
NPI[NPI >= 3.4 & NPI <=5.4] <- 2
NPI[NPI > 5.4] <- 3

mod <- survfit(Surv(time, cens) ~ NPI, data=GBSG2)
plot(mod)

pred <- c()
survs <- c()
for (i in sort(unique(NPI)))
    survs <- c(survs, getsurv(mod[i], 1825))

for (i in 1:nrow(GBSG2))
   pred <- c(pred, survs[NPI[i]])

# Brier score of NPI at t=5 years
sbrier(Surv(GBSG2$time, GBSG2$cens), pred, btime=1825)